Actor
Player_001
Lichess · actor model v0.7
Decision Volume
12,482
Error Rate
8.2%
Calibration (ECE)
0.041
Drift
0.012
vs. 6-week baseline
Actor Signal Contribution
case vs. case + actorCase Only Accuracy
71%
Case + Actor
79%
Actor Lift
+8%
grey = case-only · teal = actor-conditioned lift
Reliability Curve
confidence → observedDrift Over Time
ECE / weekTop Error Patterns
Tactical blunders in time pressure (<30s)42%
Endgame conversion under material parity27%
Opening deviation week 4+18%
Recent Decisions
| event_id | decision | truth | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| evt_8813_19 | Qh4 | Be7 | miss |
| evt_8814_22 | Rxd1 | Rxd1 | match |
| evt_8815_14 | Nf6 | Nf6 | match |