Actor
Umpire_018
MLB · actor model v0.7
Decision Volume
28,104
Error Rate
7.1%
Calibration (ECE)
0.029
Drift
0.004
vs. 6-week baseline
Actor Signal Contribution
case vs. case + actorCase Only Accuracy
84%
Case + Actor
91%
Actor Lift
+7%
grey = case-only · teal = actor-conditioned lift
Reliability Curve
confidence → observedDrift Over Time
ECE / weekTop Error Patterns
Low-and-away strike inflation (LH batter)46%
Two-strike count compression31%
Late-inning fatigue (inning ≥ 8)11%
Recent Decisions
| event_id | decision | truth | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| evt_99182 | strike | ball | miss |
| evt_99183 | ball | strike | miss |
| evt_99184 | strike | strike | match |